S3.11: The path from volcanic hazard to risk analysis


Costanza Bonadonna

University of Geneva, Switzerland

Alvaro Amigo


Eliza Calder

University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Melanie Duncan

British Geological Survey, United Kingdom

Chris Gregg

East Tennessee State University, United States of America

Gari Mayberry

USGD and USAID/OFDA, United States of America

Julie Morin

University Clermont Auvergne, France

Volcanic risk analysis is very complex given the interaction of multiple hazards,vulnerability dimensions and exposure acting dynamically over space and time with the potential of high impact on society. Additionally, the uncertainties associated both with the hazards and the effects of cascading hazards and impacts require accurate description.This theory is fine, but the reality at many active volcanoes is very different. The data needed to fully analyse risk (or even exposed elements) can be insufficiently or inaccurately catalogued or even totally lacking, and risk is dynamic, constantly shifting during the course of unrest, eruption and post-eruption time period. In addition, no comprehensive methods for vulnerability and risk assessment are widely accepted and, while some models identify individual interactions between volcanic hazard and physical vulnerability, the limited analyses on multiple dimensions of vulnerability obscures our understanding of the real volcanic risk.The UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes that a better understanding of risk in all its dimensions is needed for effective risk reduction (e.g. SFDRR Priority 1). The need for a new generation of approaches to volcanic risk analysis is clear.We welcome contributions presenting strategies for the assessment of exposure,vulnerability and risk; discussing ways of identifying and characterizing elements at risk; combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability; presenting vulnerability and risk assessment in a multi-hazard setting; describing how to benefit from local knowledge through participatory risk assessment; and showing how dynamic vulnerability and risk assessments should be carried out to implement useful mitigation measures.

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