S1.7: Progression of unrest in volcanic systems: An evaluation and a multiparameter update of the Generic Volcanic Earthquake Swarm Model (GVESM)


Arthur Jolly

GNS Science, New Zealand

Robin Matoza

Department of Earth Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, United States of America

Ian Hamling

GNS Science, New Zealand

Cindy Werner

USGS, Vancouver, WA, United States of America


Takao Ohminato

Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Link to volcano societal risk mitigation: The session seeks to develop volcano forecasting methods which may improve safety for human populations and property near volcanoes.Session and workshop description: Volcanic systems are thought to evolve in a systematic manner with a range of observations that may be ascribed to unrest and eruption. Such a system is akin to the progression of illness in humans,where the evolution of symptoms may occur in a specific pattern which maybe exploited to improve patient health outcomes. For volcanic systems, the pattern may relate genetically to the upward migration of magma through constricted pathways and into the overlying groundwater/hydrothermal system. This systematic progression was first described as the Generic Volcanic Earthquake Swarm Model (GVESM) more than 2 decades ago and included the onset of volcano-tectonic activity > long-period earthquakes > shallow tremor and eruption. This session welcomes multidisciplinary contributions in geochemistry and geophysics (especially, but not limited to, ground deformation and seismo-acoustic monitoring) that can be used to critically assess the GVESM and other conceptual volcano forecast models. We are also interested in contributions utilizing sophisticated Machine Learning techniques which may enable identification and assessment for subtle evolutionary patterns in data. The session hopes to develop an improved multi-parameter “Generic Unrest Model”which may then be applied to hazards assessments of unrest globally.

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