S1.19: Volcano deformation: data integration, models, ambiguities and implications for eruption forecasting


Alessandro Bonforte

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania – Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy

Emily Montgomery-Brown

U.S. Geological Survey California Volcano Observatory, Menlo Park, CA, United States of America

Ground deformation observations are critical components of volcano monitoring, they are able to reveal ongoing and long-term dynamics and, yet used in isolation, they can raise many unanswerable questions about, for example, the type and density of fluids causing deformation, or the total volume of eruptible magma.
Like all disciplines, volcano geodesy alone can solve only a part of the problem, revealing some dynamics and hiding or being blind to others. For this session, we seek presentations focused on volcano deformation that integrate geological, geophysical or geochemical data, or conceptual, experimental, analytical or numerical modeling to reduce the ambiguities of interpreting deformation alone. We also encourage contributions investigating time variable source processes and source evolution constrained by non-geodetic observations, or formally integrating data from multiple disciplines (joint inversions, physics-based modeling, machine learning). Of interest are also investigations into the performance and trade-offs between simple analytical and more realistic and complex source models in time-constrained monitoring or rapid-response settings that analyze impacts of model-biases on interpretations and eruption forecasts, and examples of these results being shared with the public or civil authorities.

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